Earhart’s “Disappearing Footprints,” Part III

Today we move along to Part III of Capt. Calvin Pitts’ “Amelia Earhart: DISAPPEARING FOOTPRINTS IN THE SKY,” his studied analysis of Amelia Earhart’s final flight.  We left Part II with Calvin’s description of the communication failures between the Navy tug USS Ontario and the ill-fated fliers.

“What neither of them knew at that time was the agonizing fact that the Electra was not equipped for low-frequency broadcast,” Calvin wrote, “and the Ontario was not equipped for high-frequency. . . . After changing frequencies to one that the Ontario could not receive, it is safe to assume that Amelia made several voice calls.  Morse code, of course, was already out of the picture.” 

We’re honored that Calvin has so embraced the truth in the Earhart disappearance that he’s spent countless hours working to explain the apparently inexplicable — how and why Amelia Earhart reached and landed at Mili Atoll on July 2, 1937.  Here’s Part III, with even more to follow. 

Amelia Earhart: DISAPPEARING FOOTPRINTS IN THE SKY, Part III
By Capt. Calvin Pitts

Although Amelia was obviously trying to make contact with the Ontario by radio, Lt. Blakeslee did not know that.  By the same token, Amelia had to wonder why he would not answer.

USS Ontario (AT-13), was a Navy tug servicing the Samoa area, but assigned to the Earhart flight twice as a mid-point weather and radio station for assistance.

This failure to communicate, however, worked into Amelia’s new plan.  Since she had no way of letting the Ontario know they were en route, being without Morse code and having frequencies which were not compatible, now that he had been plying those waters for 10 days along her flight path, she knew it was useless to try to find and to overfly the unknown position of the Ontario in the thick darkness of a Pacific night.

Therefore, it now made even more sense to continue on to Nauru whose people had been alerted by Balfour that the Electra was probably coming.  Although that had begun as a suggestion, no one yet knew that it had now become a decision.  She needed to let the Ontario know — but how?

She had lost contact with Balfour, couldn’t make contact with the Ontario, and the Itasca had not yet entered the picture.  Nauru, it was later learned, had a similar problem as the Ontario, and Tarawa had not broadcast anything.  Amelia was good at making last-minute decisions. “Let’s press on to Nauru,” she might have said.  “It’s a small diversion, and a great gain in getting a solid land-fix.  I’ll explain later.”

The local chief of Nauru Island, or someone in authority, already had a long string of powerful spot lights set up for local mining purposes. He would turn them on with such brightness, 5,000 candlepower, that they could be seen for more than 34 miles at sea level, even more at altitude.

Finding a well-lit island was a sure thing.  Finding a small ship in the dark ocean, which had no ETA for them, was doubtful.  Further, as was later learned from the Ontario logs, the winds from the E-NE were blowing cumulus clouds into their area, which, by 1:00 a.m., were overcast with rain squalls.  It is possible that earlier, a darkening sky to the east would have been further assurance that deviating slightly over Nauru was the right decision.

As the Electra approached the dark island now lit with bright lights, Nauru radio received a message at 10:36 p.m. from Amelia that said, “We see a ship (lights) ahead.”

Others have interpreted this as evidence that Amelia was still on course for the Ontario, and was saying that she had seen its lights.  The conflict here is that Amelia flew close enough to Nauru for ground observers to state they had heard and seen the plane.  How could Amelia see Nauru at the same time she saw the Ontario more than 100 miles away?

Amelia may have wondered if Noonan and Balfour were wrong about Nauru.  But they weren’t.  According to the log from a different ship coming from New Zealand south of them, they were en route to Nauru for mining business.Those shipmates of the MV Myrtlebank, a 5,150 ton freighter owned by a large shipping conglomerate, under the British flag, recorded their position as southwest of Nauru at about 10:30 pm on that date.  The story of the Mrytlebank fits in well to resolve this confusion.   It was undoubtedly this New Zealand ship, not the Ontario, that Amelia had seen.

MV Myrtlebank, a freighter owned by Bank Line Ltd., was chartered to a British Phosphate Commission at Nauru.  As recorded later, around 10:30 p.m., third mate Syd Dowdeswell was “surprised to hear the sound of an aircraft approaching and lasting about a minute.  He reported the incident to the captain who received it ‘with some skepticism’ because aircraft were virtually unknown in that part of the Pacific at that time.  Neither Dowdeswell nor the captain knew about Earhart’s flight.”

Source: State Department telegram from Sydney, Australia dated July 3, 1937:Amalgamated Wireless state information received that report fromNauru was sent to Bolinas Radioat . . . 6.54 PM Sydney time today on (6210 kHz), fairly strong signals, speech not intelligible, no hum of plane in background but voice similar that emitted from plane in flight last night between 4.30 and 9.30 P.M.  Message from plane when at least 60 miles south of Nauru received 8.30 p.m., Sydney time, July 2 sayingA ship in sight ahead.’  Since identified as steamer Myrtle Bank (sic) which arrived Nauru daybreak today.

Unless Mr. T.H. Cude produced the actual radio log for that night, the contemporary written record (the State Dept. telegram) trumps his 20-plus-year-old recollection.

The MV MYRTLEBANK of the BANK LINE Limited was about 60 nautical miles southwest of Nauru Island when it entered the pages of history.  Amelia Earhart said, “See ship (lights) ahead.” This was most likely that ship since the Ontario would have been 80 to 100 miles away.  Nauru, the destination of this ship, was lit with powerful mining lights.  At Nauru Island, the Electra would be eight-plus hours from “Area 13,” or 2013z (8:43 am) 150-plus miles from Howland Island.

This was most likely the ship about which Amelia Earhart said: See ship (lights) ahead.  Most researchers state that she had spotted the USS Ontario, which had been ordered by the Navy to be stationed halfway between Lae and Howland for weather information via radio.  No radio contact was ever made between Amelia’s Lockheed Electra 10E and the Ontario.

While it is possible that Amelia flew only close enough to Nauru to see the bright mining lights, it is more likely that a navigator like Noonan would want a firm land fix on time and exact location.

For this reason, in a re-creation of the flight path on Google Earth, which we have done, we posit the belief, in view of the silence from the Ontario, that having a known fix prior to heading out into the dark waters, overcast skies and rain squalls of the last half of the 2,556-mile (now 2,650-mile) trip to small Howland, it was the better part of wisdom to overfly Nauru.

Weather and radio issues were the motive behind Harry Balfour’s suggestion to use Nauru as an intermediate point rather than a small ship in a dark ocean.  Thus, the Myrtlebank unwittingly became part of the history of a great world event.

Now, with the land mass of Nauru under them, Fred could begin the next eight hours from a known position.  Balfour’s suggestion and Fred and Amelia’s decision was not a bad call, with apologies to the crew of the Ontario.  Unfortunately, it was not until after the fact that the Ontario was notified of this.  They headed back to Samoa with barely enough coal to make it home.  Lt. Blakeslee said they were scraping the bottom for coal by the time they returned.

The details of the eight-hour flight from Nauru are contained in the Itasca log.  In my own case, the Amelia story was interesting, but not compelling.  However, it was not until I began to study in minute detail the Itasca logs of those last hours of the Electra’s flight, hour by hour, and visualizing it by means of Google Earth, that the interest turned to a passion.

WHAT REALLY HAPPENED?  DO WE HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO KNOW?  IS THERE REALLY NO ANSWER TO WHAT HAS BEEN CONCEALED AS A “MYSTERY”?

In the reliving of what was once a mystery, things began to make sense, piece by piece.  It was like being a detective who knew there were hidden pieces, but what were they, and where did they fit?  For me, as the puzzle began to come together, the interest grew.  There is really more to this story, much more, than appeared during the first reading.

Itasca Chief Radioman Leo Bellarts and three other Coast Guard radiomen worked in vain to bring Amelia Earhart, Fred Noonan and the Electra to a safe landing at Howland Island.  Photo courtesy Dave Bellarts.

The radio room positions and pages being logged contained valuable information.  Reading the details created a picture in the imagination at one level, but with more and more evidence piling up, a different level began to emerge. 

Can this story really be true?  Credulity was giving way to the reality of evidence.

If you will follow the highlights of the Itasca logs, you may find yourself captivated, as I was.  One thing that is not spoken at first, but becomes a message loud and clear, is the not-so-hidden narrative in those repeated, unanswered Morse code transmissions.

The radiomen thought they were helping Amelia and Fred, but with each unanswered Code message, they were really just talking to themselves.  As they get more desperate, you keep wondering: Surely the Electra crew can at least hear the clicks and clacks, the dits and dahs, even if they don’t fully understand them.

Why don’t they at least acknowledge they hear even though understanding appears to be absent?  Why the silence, the long silence into the dark night, the silence which leaves the Itasca crew bewildered, even “screaming,” as they later said, “into the mike?”

The Coast Guard Cutter Itasca was anchored off Howland Island on July 2, 1937 to help Amelia Earhart find the island and land safely at the airstrip that had been prepared there for her Lockheed Electra 10E.

The position of the Electra, an area, not a fix, is our primary destination now because Howland was never seen.  This makes Howland secondary for this exercise, mostly because that was not the position from which Amelia made her final and fatal decision.

There were at least two extremely dangerous elements involving Howland, and one strategic matter.  Dangerous:  10,000 nesting and flying birds waiting to greet Mama big bird, and the extremely limited landing area of a 30 city-block by 10-block sand mass.

We delay our discussion about strategic since it deals with the government hijacking of a civilian plane, something controversial but which is worth waiting for.  Stand by.

For now, we join Amelia and Fred for some details of their flight to Area 13.  The purpose here is to locate, as best we can, that area from which Amelia made her final navigation decision.

That area encompasses a portion of ocean 200 miles by 200 miles.  South to north, it begins about 100 miles north of Howland to at least 300 miles north.  East to west, it begins with a NW line of 337 degrees and continues west parallel to that line for at least 200 miles.

There is a mountain of calculation behind that conclusion, but those details are for another venue.  For now, for those interested in re-creating that historic flight, especially if you have Google Earth, follow the Itasca log in order to see Google Truth.

We designate this 200 by 200 miles as “Area 13” for the simple reason that their last known transmission not within sight of land which can be confirmed was at 2013z (GMT) (the famous 8:43 am call).  Following this was nothing but silence for those on the ground.

After their long night of calling, waiting and consuming coffee, for the crew of Itasca and Howland Island, 8:43 a.m. was a special time.  But 2013 GMT (8:43 a.m.) was also the 20-hour mark for the fliers, after their own, even more stressful all-nighter.  Sadly, the two in the Electra, at 13 past 20 hours, were entirely on their own at 2013 — and here that sinister number “13” appears again.

 

Radio room of USCG Cutter Tahoe, sister ship to Itasca, circa 1937.  Three radio logs were maintained during the flight, at positions 1 and 2 in the Itasca radio room, and one on Howland Island, where the Navy’s high-frequency direction finder had been set up. Aboard Itasca, Chief Radioman Leo G. Bellarts supervised Gilbert E. Thompson, Thomas J. O’Hare and William L. Galten, all third-class radiomen, (meaning they were professionally qualified and “rated” to perform their jobs).  Many years later, Galten told Paul Rafford Jr., a former Pan Am Radio flight officer, “That woman never intended to land on Howland Island.”

The following routing and times are a compilation from several sources —

(1) Itasca  Logs from the log-positions on the ship, a copy of which can be provided;
(2) Notes from Harry Balfour, local weather and radioman on site at Lae;
(3) Notes from  L.G. Bellarts, Chief Radio operator, USS Itasca;
(4) The Search for Amelia Earhart, by Fred Goerner;
(5) Amelia Earhart: The Truth At Last, by Mike Campbell;
(6) David Billings, Australian flight engineer (numbers questionable),  Earhart Lockheed Electra Search Project;
(7) Thomas E. Devine, Vincent V. Loomis, and various other writings.

The intended course for the Electra was a direct line from Lae to Howland covering 2,556 statute miles.  The actual track, however, was changed due to weather, in the first instance, and due to a change of decision in the second instance.  Such contact never took place.  Neither the Electra nor the Ontario saw nor heard from the other, for reasons which could have been avoided if each had known the frequencies and limitations of the other.  This basic lack of communication plagued almost every radio and key which tried to communicate with the Electra.   

If one has access to Google Earth, it is interesting to pin and to follow this flight by the hour.  The average speeds and winds were derived from multiple sources, including weather forecasts and reports. 

To generalize, the average ground speed going east was probably not above 150 mph, with a reported headwind of some 20 mph, which began at about 135-140 mph when the plane was heavy and struggling to climb.

In the beginning, with input from Lockheed engineers, Amelia made a slow (about 30 feet per minute) climb to 7,000 feet (contrary to the plan laid out by Lockheed’s Kelly Johnson), then to 10,000 feet (which should have been step-climbing to 4,000 to 7,000 to 10,000 feet toward the Solomons mountain), then descending to 8,000 feet depending upon winds, then to 10,000 feet reported, with various changes en route.

The remaining contingency fuel at 8:43 a.m. Howland time, to get the Electra back to the Gilbert Islands, as planned out carefully with the help of Gene Vidal (experienced aviator) and Kelly Johnson (experienced Lockheed engineer), has often been, in our opinion, mischaracterized and miscalculated.  By all reasonable calculations, the Electra had about 20 hours of fuel PLUS at least four-plus hours of contingency fuel.

July 2, 1937:  Amelia Earhart, leaving Lae, New Guinea, frustrated and fatigued from a month of pressure, problems, and critical decisions on a long world flight, and unprepared for the Radio issues ahead, unprepared, that is, unless there was a bigger plan in play.

Then why did Amelia say she was almost out of fuel when making one of her last calls at 1912z (7:42 am)?Obviously, she was not because she made another call an hour later about the “157-337 (sun) line” at 2013z. Put yourself in that cockpit, totally fatigued after 20 hours of battling wind and weather and loss of sleep, compounded by 30 previous difficult days.  It is easy to see four hours of fuel, after such exhaustion, being described as “running low.”

With the desperation of wanting to be on the ground, it would be quite normal to say “gas is running low” just to get someone’s attention.  If one is a pilot, and has ever been “at wit’s end” in a tense situation, they have no problem not being a “literalist” with this statement.  The subsequent facts, of course, substantiate this.

A view of Howland Island that Amelia Earhart never enjoyed. Note the runway outline many years later, a destination which became a ghost.  In the far distance to the left, under thick clouds at 8:13 a.m. local time, was “Area 13.” 

Wherever the Electra ended up, and we have a volume of evidence for that in a future posting, IT WAS NOT IN THE OCEAN NEAR HOWLAND.  That was a government finding as accurate and as competent as the government’s success was against the Wright Brothers attempt to make the first fight.

For this leg of the Electra’s flight to its destination, our starting data point was Lae, New Guinea, and our terminal data point is not the elusive bird-infested Howland Island, but rather the area where they were often said to be lost, a place we have designated as Area 13.  (A more detailed flight, by the hour with data from the Itasca logs, is available. Enjoy the trip.

Summary of track from Lae to Area 13 then to Mili Atoll (times are approximate):

(1) LAE to  CHOISEUL, Solomon Islands – Total Miles: 670 / Total Time: 05:15 hours
(2) CHOISEUL to  NUKUMANU Islands – Total Miles:  933 / Total Time: 07:18 hours
(3) NUKUMANU  to  NAURU Island – Total Miles: 1,515 / Total Time: 11:30 hours
(4) NAURU  to 1745z (6:15 a.m.
Howland) – Total Miles: 2,440 / Total Time: 17:45 hours
(5) 1745z  to  1912z  (7:12 a.m.
Howland) – Total Miles: 2,635 / Total Time: 19:12 hours
(6) 1912z to 20
13z  (8:43 a.m. Howland) – Total Miles: 2.750 / Total Time: 20:13 hours 

LAE  to AREA 13: Total Miles : 2,750 (Including approaches) Time:  About 20:13 hours

Fuel Remaining: About 4.5 to 5 hours

Distance from 2013z to Mili Atoll Marshall Islands = About 750 miles
Ground speed = 160 (true air speed) plus 15 mph (tailwind) = 175 mph
Time en route = About 4.3 hours

ETA at Mili Atoll, Marshall Islands = Noon to 12:30; Fuel remaining: 13 drops

NOTE that from a spot about 200 mi NW of Howland (Area 13) to the Gilberts is not the same heading as to the Marshall’s Mili Atoll. The Gilberts are the three small islands below Mili Atoll.  The “Contingency Plan” was to return to the Gilberts and land on a beach among friendly people.  Instead, they made an “intentional” decision to pick up a different heading toward the Marshalls whose strong Japanese radio at Jaluit they could hear.  Compare the two different headings from Area 13 to the Gilberts and to the Marshalls.  The difference is about 30 degrees.  THEY ARE NOT THE SAME.  Did they make an honest mistake, or an intentional decision?

The heading to the Gilberts would not have taken them to the Marshall Islands, with a heading difference of about 30 degrees.  The decision to give up on Howland, and utilize the remaining contingency fuel was “intentional,” not merely intentional to turn back, but to turn toward the Marshalls where there was a strong radio beam, a runway, fuel — and Japanese soldiers who may or may not be impressed with the most famous female aviator in the world.  Amelia and her exploits were known to be popular in Japan at that time.  Although their mind was on war with China, maybe this charming pilot could tame them.

Unfortunately, we know THE END of the Amelia story, and it was not pretty.  When she crossed into enemy territory, she apparently lost her charm with the war lords, and eventually her life. (End of Part III.)

Next up: Part IV of “Amelia Earhart: Disappearing Footprints in the Sky.”  As always, your comments are welcome. 

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26 responses

  1. At what point did the heading for Howland change to the heading for Mili? Since Mili is closer to Lae, why did they run out of fuel? Headwinds? Navigation mistake? Other?

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I know little of navigation and fuel consumption, but would it be safer to fly south some 280 miles to the Phoenix is with a lagoon, rather than to the Marshalls,some 800 miles north of Howland ? Bellarts thought they were overhead based on the intensity of her transmissions
    Thanks for the detailed review.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Thanks, Peter, for your interest and questions.

    “At what point did the heading for Howland change to the heading for Mili?”
    The brief answer, as in politics, is often meaningless: “At 2013z / 150-200 miles NW of Howland.” I have a longer, more meaningful response prepared if you want to take time to read it. Just let me know.

    “Since Mili is closer to Lae, why did they run out of fuel?”
    Unsure of the question. Do you mean, “Since Mili is closer THAN Lae to their present position…”? Clarify.

    “Headwinds? Navigation mistake? Other?”
    No, once they turned toward the Marshalls, they had a 15-20 mph tailwind according to the weather charts. The headwind was when they were coming toward Howland.

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  4. Thanks Ron, for you interest and questions.

    Q: “I know little of navigation and fuel consumption, but would it be safer to fly south some 280 miles to the Phoenix is with a lagoon, rather than to the Marshalls,some 800 miles north of Howland ?”

    The ultimate answer to your question is contained in the next posting # IV.

    But the short of it is: Where did the Electra end up? That’s the answer which determines the parameters for any question about this. All other questions merely highlight the answer to the documented fact that they ended up in the Marshall Islands. That fact raises the more difficult question of WHY … did Amelia choose the Marshalls?

    Scenario #1: The Electra is already 150-200 miles north. If you add 150-200 mi to 280, and subtract the same from 800, the difference is not as great, probably about 150-175 miles.

    Scenario #2: It is said in the writings of 1937 that those islands were mostly uninhabited. The Marshalls were not. And the Gilberts were filled with friendly natives who had been under Great Britain’s influence for years. For the difference of less than 200 miles, why would one want to go where there was no one to help? At least in the Gilberts, through Tarawa’s radio, help could be notified. In addition, the Gilberts were their Contingency Plan from the beginning.

    Scenario #3: This raises the more complicated question of WHY did Amelia go to the Marshalls? In the government’s mind (FDR), war clouds between Japan and China were well over the horizon. In fact, that war was declared only 5 days after Amelia & Fred disappeared.

    But Amelia was not military. In her mind, perhaps, war was years away (in reality, it was 4 years hence, which no one knew at the time). In the general news of 1937, Amelia, the great female aviator, was said to be popular in Japan. When she looked at the Japanese, she saw friends and fans. What did she have to fear from Japanese friends.

    California, sometimes her home, was filled with Japanese-Americans. She had charmed her way all over the world, so why not “little Japan” in the Marshalls? She was anti-war and pro-peace, like Lindbergh. She was their friend, an ambassador of peace. Why not go to the Marshalls where they had a runway and fuel which the Electra now needed. And the soldiers would be pleased to meet the record-holder and now world-aviator. They might even give her fuel rather than selling it. She had done nothing against Japan. So, in her mind, why should she be afraid?

    There is at least another scenario which will be left unaddressed for now.

    Q: “Bellarts thought they were overhead based on the intensity of her transmissions
    Thanks for the detailed review.”

    At the time, that’s what he said. But later, he agreed with fellow-radioman Galten, stating in public that “she never intended to land at Howland.” That opens another scenario for you.

    Regards, Calvin

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    1. William H. Trail | Reply

      Calvin,

      Coast Guard Chief Radioman Leo G. Belarts’ assertion that he thought they (AE & FN) were overhead based on the intensity of her transmissions and his publicly stated comment to Radioman 3rd Class William L. Galten opining that AE “never intended to land at Howland” are not contradictory or mutually exclusive statements. Taken together they are, in fact, quite intriguing.

      All best,

      William

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      1. William,

        It was Radioman 3rd Class William Galten, not Bellarts, who told Paul Rafford Jr. that he believed Earhart never intended to land at Howland. Galten’s statement can be found in Rafford’s “Amelia Earhart’s Radio,” 2nd edition, p. 94.

        Bellarts told Elgen Long in a 1970 interview that she was coming in at strength 5 of 5, and that he ran up on deck in anticipation of seeing the Electra. I have the interview and have heard it myself, but for some reason Long left this out of his 1999 book, or at least I can’t find it now and have quickly checked every indexed page. Rafford makes reference to Bellarts’ statement on p. 112 of “AE’s Radio.”

        MC

        Liked by 1 person

      2. William H. Trail

        Mike,

        Thanks. I don’t know how I managed to foul that up. I hate making stupid mistakes.

        All best,

        William

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      3. Not at all, William. It’s easy to get the things Galten and Bellarts said confused, and perfectly understandable. Your knowledge of the Earhart saga exceeds nearly everyone who comes to this blog. If I hadn’t spent almost 31 years on this story, I could easily have done the same thing. I didn’t send you the correction privately only because it’s important for others who also care to see it.

        Best,
        Mike

        Liked by 1 person

  5. I have lunch monthly with Bellarts son, Dave, and he says his father never changed his mind about the loudness, as well as the xo , who wrote contemporaneously to his mother about the voice. Both added other details not recorded I the log, namely the panic tenor of the last transmission.

    My scenario is she went in north of Howland, was picked up by the monitoring Japanese, and by boat brought up to the friendly sea of the Marshalls and dumped there, maybe at Jaluit!!

    Always an interesting topic,and I am pleased that Mike keeps it going

    Ron Bright

    Like

  6. Michael A Hawkins | Reply

    This book purchase was truly the gift that keeps on giving!!

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  7. Whether Fred was acting up and drinking before or during the flight really has little bearing on the questions about how they ended up on Mili Atoll. I suppose it’s a possibility that Fred was so disorganized that he navigated them to Mili or maybe he was on the bright and just made a big mistake, could happen to anyone.

    Celestial navigation, from my reading was known to be not 100% accurate no matter who was doing it.
    So, anyway, on Sat. a friend and I went looking for the wreckage of a Northeast Airlines DC3 that crashed in Dec. 1954 on the side of Mt. Success near Berlin, NH. It is a well known local attraction and many a knowledgeable hiker visits the site, it is about 10 minutes off the Appalachian Trail. Still, it is not that easy to find, and a dilettante would have little chance of success. It was a crash caused by bad weather and/or an unexpected downdraft when the plane was landing. It was said the pilot managed to pull the nose up just before they hit and the plane passenger cabin is largely intact. 2 died, but 5 lived, showing that a crash like that can be survivable.

    Makes me think of David Billings and his New Britain crash story. I’m just thinking now, suppose I wanted to ID the aircraft? The tail section had broken off and I couldn’t find it. The cockpit was missing, too, maybe it’s there somewhere or maybe not. No passenger seats either. The plane may have been partly salvaged by helicopter, the passengers were rescued that way. Finding the engines was hard they were a lot smaller than I would have thought and they were partly disassembled for some reason. My friend took her pictures and wanted to leave so I couldn’t hunt around forever.

    It makes me think how difficult it would be to ID parts of Amelia’s plane on Saipan Field if it was buried.
    So my friend posted on Facebook and gave a link to the story. It is a website devoted to aviation news and subjects. I could supply it if anyone is interested in next reply. But it had a section called “mysteries”. I found one I had never heard of which was comparable to the Flight 19 story but without the Bermuda Triangle angle. https://www.newenglandaviationhistory.com/four-p-47-thunderbolts-lost-february-11-1943/

    It made me think a thought that had run through my head a couple times before. What if, like this cited story, she had just done something that was/is totally inexplicable similar to the Thunderbolts. That is, there may be something, under some circumstance, that causes pilots to totally lose their bearings and like this flight of four to never call for help, not even one of these men did, at least according to the account. Yes, I know, it’s like “Twilight Zone” but these incidents do happen. Like Flight 370? Maybe AE got caught in one of these vortexes and even if all the secret files are revealed there may be no logical explanation for what she did and never will be. So there’s my balmy theory for today, or maybe not so balmy.

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    1. Regarding the P-47’s; 4 aircraft takeoff into heavy fog/low ceiling in Rhode Island in the middle of February and go down within minutes….my first thought would be icing conditions; what was the official determination?

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      1. All the information I have is what the link gives. So why did the flight all head SE which is the wrong direction? They must have had compasses that icing wouldn’t affect. What does that have to do with icing? How did the “tower” know they were headed SE? What is totally missing is the radio reports. Didn’t they have radios in the planes in 1943? Didn’t the pilots talk to the tower? Wouldn’t at least one of them send out an SOS or Mayday? Why did one of them keep flying somewhere presumably SE out to sea and never was found? Didn’t the pilots radio to each other?

        Yes, I think there must be much more to this story but on the face of it it seems inexplicable. I’m not a pilot and your icing comment raises a realistic issue, but what I am getting at is why do pilots do inexplicable things and disappear sometimes? Everybody that comments on AE’s flight tries to make sense out of her behavior. What if if simply doesn’t make sense because what she did was irrational and inexplicable and we will never know why? Her behavior does not seem in her best interest as others have noticed, of course. Maybe you can check into this story of the 4 P47s further, but I think in the commotion of wartime many planes went missing and no one had the time to investigate thoroughly. Supposedly a lot of training planes disappeared at Ft Lauderdale in those years close to the time of Flight 19. I certainly don’t have the answers. I’m just an armchair commentator.

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      2. “What if if simply doesn’t make sense because what she did was irrational and inexplicable and we will never know why?”

        That’s why she had Noonan with her, David, to keep her straight under his experienced and knowledgeable guidance. Poor Fred Noonan is always getting short shrift in this story.

        MC

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      3. Didn’t Amelia overrule Fred when they were flying into one of those African airports? How come Fred didn’t speak up about their poor planning on the Howland leg? Why wouldn’t he say if you don’t get your radio frequencies right and your DF right I’m not going, I’m going to stay in Bulolo and party? I thought he was supposedly the expert at Pan Am. He evidently didn’t object when she refused the help of Pan Am. Were they co-dependents? Was she an enabler for Fred? Did she treat him like she treated her feckless father? Evidently Manning thought some of her actions were foolish and refused to fly with her anymore. She probably was one of those people who have to have their own way all the time, that’s my opinion.

        Why didn’t he grab the mike from her and call for help when they “got lost”? Maybe they couldn’t hear the Itasca but they could hope the Itasca could hear them. She never said on the radio that they couldn’t hear the Itasca or made any indication that was the case. I have sometimes thought that she picked Fred because she knew he would completely obey her while other competent navigators were too independent.

        I think my point is that sometimes a pilot can become irrational, apparently suicidal also. Sometimes a flight of four planes can act irrational (Flight 19) or my 4 Thunderbolts example because of forces we don’t understand. Maybe Amelia had some wacky plan to bring peace with the Japanese because she knew of FDR’s war intentions. I happen to believe there can be a phenomenon such as in the Bermuda Triangle or the “Devil’s Triangle” near Japan where strong force fields of some unknown to us nature can cause people to lose their senses and do things like abandon a perfectly seaworthy ship or fly into oblivion.

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      4. None of your questions have clear answers and all call for speculation, which you excel at, David. The how and the why of their landing at Mili Atoll remains the real mystery in the Earhart saga, as Calvin Pitts has been so clearly and emphatically demonstrating with his unbiased analysis.
        MC

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      5. I checked on the official determination for the P-47 incident and the USAAF Accident Report states Drake and Pavlovic were “Missing Due To Weather”, and Pavlovic and Meyer were “Killed In Crash Due To Weather”; that particular incident doesn’t appear to be a big mystery.

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      6. Tom, you are not as skeptical as me. Of course the USAAF is going to issue a report like that. If that’s what actually happened and it was as simple as that, there would be no mystery and the story would never end up in that journal as a mystery. I have heard that dozens probably hundreds of flights during the war went missing and I suspect that many were trainees, but these guys were being led by an very experienced pilot. Of course the questions I raised are being disregarded by everyone.

        Did the fog make them head SE which they obviously did? I thought the planes had compasses. The story says they would have had to fly by instruments which meant the fog was already known and it would not have been a problem. So what other weather caused their disaster? Did the report you cite have any info except the cause being weather? Didn’t the planes have radios? I have no interest in proving my point, there is no way that I could. I just think that sometimes pilots do inexplicable and/or incredibly dumb things for no reason that anyone can fathom. By the way I got an A+ in speculation class when I was in school.

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    2. Warwick, RI and Groton, CT are only 43 statute miles apart, a relatively short flight. It would be interesting to research what the actual weather conditions were at Groton when they took off from Warwick and what they were forecast to be (particularly ceiling and visability) upon ETA at Groton.

      All best,

      William

      Like

  8. David,

    According to a problem solving principle known as “Occam’s Razor” the simplest solution tends to be the right one.

    All best,

    William

    Liked by 1 person

  9. A reader named Frank Baker asks, “Were the fliers carrying a dinghy?” I accidentally deleted his comment/question.

    Frank, they had an inflatable life raft, almost certainly, not a dinghy. See TAL for more.

    Like

    1. William H. Trail | Reply

      Or, as described by some native islander eyewitnesses, “The boat that grew!”

      All best,

      William

      Liked by 1 person

      1. William, That’s a gem, and I love collecting gems. Do you have any background or context which would add to the beauty of that islander thought?

        Thanks, Calvin

        Like

      2. William H. Trail

        Calvin,

        It is indeed a”gem” and is taken from the eyewitness account of Jororo Alibar and fellow fisherman Lijon who witnessed the landing of the Electra at Barre Island, Mili Atoll. It can be found on page 121 of “Amelia Earhart The Final Story” by Vincent Loomis with Jeffrey Ethell. My copy is a 1985 Random House 1st Edition.

        All best,

        William

        Liked by 1 person

      3. William-

        I bought the same edition of the Loomis book about a year ago; like new condition from the Lenoir, NC Library…it had never been checked out (indicative of the lack of interest of the Earhart story I guess).

        Like

      4. William H. Trail

        Tom,

        It’s a shame that no one read it. Unfortunately, too many people in our country today are shallow and self-absorbed with no interest in anything beyond themselves.

        All best,

        William

        Liked by 1 person

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